Evaluation of the effect of average annual temperature indicators on the productivity of grain crops

The study is aimed at studying the influence of the average annual level of atmospheric temperatures on the dynamics of the productivity of grain crops in the territory of Azerbaijan. The research was conducted based on the construction of a regression model with a polynomial coefficient of the dependence of the change in the productivity of grain crops on the average annual temperatures based on the data of 1992-2022. It was determined that the threshold effect manifests itself in the effect of the average annual temperature on the change in the productivity of grain crops. The increase in average air temperature up to a certain level affects the productivity of grain crops in the direction of increase, and at this time, is formed the tendency to decrease in scale of the increase in productivity in accordance with the increase in temperature. After passing the corresponding critical limit, the increase in temperature level affects productivity in the direction of decrease, and in this case, there is a tendency to increase the scale of decrease in productivity in accordance with the increase in temperatures. Based on the model, the extent to which changes in the average annual temperature indicators can become a factor in reducing the productivity of grain crops is evaluated.