Diversification of Agricultural Policy in the Republic of Azerbaijan: Economic and Agroecological Efficiency of the Cotton-Maize-Sunflower Crop Rotation Model

Global climate change, increasing water scarcity, and growing food security risks have necessitated a reassessment of agricultural production structures. In particular, the long-term economic and agroecological unsustainability of monoculture-based production systems has positioned crop diversification as a central component of contemporary agricultural policy. This article examines the economic and agroecological efficiency of the gradual transition in the Republic of Azerbaijan from a cotton-oriented monoculture production model to the cultivation of maize and sunflower.The purpose of the study is to comparatively assess cotton, maize, and sunflower production in terms of productivity, water consumption, soil restoration, and profitability, as well as to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the import substitution potential for sunflower oil. The findings indicate that maize provides higher productivity and more stable income compared to cotton, while sunflower demonstrates substantial agroecological advantages due to its lower water requirements and positive impact on soil restoration. The implementation of the cotton–maize–sunflower crop rotation model contributes to a 15-20% increase in overall productivity, a reduction in water consumption, and the preservation of soil fertility. Scenario analysis suggests that expanding sunflower production and processing capacity could substitute 30-40% of sunflower oil imports in the medium term. The study concludes that not the complete elimination of cotton cultivation, but rather its retention at an optimal share within the cropping structure, combined with the expansion of maize and sunflower production, constitutes a resource-oriented, economically justified, and sustainable development model for Azerbaijan’s agricultural sector. The results provide valuable scientific and practical implications for the improvement of agricultural policy and the implementation of diversification strategies.